In this week’s coverage, we analyze the bullish trends in the E-Mini Russell 2000 and Euro FX futures, consolidation in natural gas, and the pullback in copper futures. We also examine the economic reports and earnings announcements expected next week.
Commentary and charts reflect data at the time of writing (Friday, May 3 at 3 PM ET), and market conditions may change by the publication of this analysis.
June E-Mini Russell 2000 Index Futures Daily Chart
With the possibility of rate cuts occurring earlier than expected, June E-Mini Russell 2000 Index futures climbed mid-week, continuing the rally through Friday. This brought the Russell back above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, and into the Ichimoku cloud. It also closed above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the previous downtrend that began in early April. MACD showed signs of bullishness with a cross above the signal line on Monday. RSI is trending along with price. Should this rally continue, resistance might be tested at the 61% Fib level (2,071) and at the top of the Ichimoku cloud (~2,100). Support might be found at the 50% Fib level (~2,040) and at the 38.2% Fib level (~2,010) which could be reinforced by the 20-day moving average.
June E-Mini Russell 2000 Index futures daily chart
June Natural Gas Futures Daily Chart
June natural gas futures broke out of a $0.10 range on Friday, crossing above both the 20- and 50-day moving averages before finding resistance at the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud period. This also represented strong advancement toward the retracement of the previous downtrend that started at the beginning of March, closing above both the 23.6% and 38.2% fib levels on Friday. The MACD has been tangled up with its signal line, though Friday’s continuation of a rally indicated A bullish cross. RSI is trending along with price. Should this rally continue into the Ichimoku cloud, expect resistance at the 50% Fib level (2.182) and the 61.8% Fib level (2.246). A breakdown could expect support at the 20-day moving average (~2.045)and the recent low (1.909).
June natural gas futures daily chart
June Euro FX Futures Daily Chart
June Euro FX futures finished the week with a strong rally due to Fed policy and economic reports pointing to a weaker dollar. Friday’s trading broke through the 1.075 level, which had been holding as resistance for over a week. This rally tested the 50-day moving average, which held as resistance. The MACD recently showed a bullish cross, and the histogram continues to increase positively (showing a continuation of bullish momentum). RSI is trending along with price. Should the rally continue, expect a re-test of resistance at the 50-day MA (~1.0830) which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the previous downtrend. A reversal could find support at recent resistance (~1.0750) with more support at the 20-day moving average (~1.0730).
June Euro FX futures daily chart
June Copper Futures Daily Chart
While June copper futures made a high that hasn’t been seen in almost two years, a reversal brought copper lower to test the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the uptrend that began in early February. Friday’s rally finishes the week with a bullish harami (green candle engulfed by the previous red candle) which could indicate a rally might be on tap to start the week. Price remains above steeply ascending 20-day and 50-day moving averages, and a rising Ichimoku cloud. The MACD showed a bearish cross midweek, which was preceded by a bearish cross on the RSI (a cross below the overbought level of 70). Should a rally continue, expect some resistance at the recent high (~4.6950). A continuation of the pullback could see support at the 20-day moving average (~4.4510), and further support at the 38% Fib retracement level, which could coincide with the supportive trendline (~4.3150).
June copper futures daily chart
Companies Reporting Earnings May 6 – May 10
Berkshire-Hathaway requires attention before markets–not so much for its earnings performance, rather for what the Oracle of Omaha Warren Buffet’s outlook will be on the economy and/or business environment going into the second half of the year.
This call occurs on Saturday, May 4. The lone Dow Jones Index company, The Walt Disney Company, reports before market open on Tuesday–this could affect YM and MYM futures. Energy companies BP, Sempra, Duke and NRG report Wednesday morning; and Occidental Petroleum reports later that afternoon.
Automobile makers Toyota (Wednesday morning) and Honda (Friday morning) give insight into a large portion of the durable goods sector. Other notable companies reporting are Anheuser-Busch Inbev (Wednesday morning), Airbnb (Wednesday afternoon) and Warner Bros. Discovery (Thursday morning).
| Date | Companies Earnings |
|---|---|
| Monday, May 6 | Spirit Airlines (SAVE): $-1.43 EPS Estimate, $1.27B Revenue Estimate (BMO) Berkshire Hathaway, Inc. (BRK.B): $3.41 EPS Estimate (BMO) |
| Tuesday, May 7 | Walt Disney Co (DIS): $1.09 EPS Estimate, $22.11B Revenue Estimate (BMO) * BP p.l.c. (BP): $1.03 EPS Estimate, $61.77B Revenue Estimate (BMO) Duke Energy Corp. (DUK): $1.41 EPS Estimate, $7.85B Revenue Estimate (BMO) UBS AG (UBS): $0.23 EPS Estimate, $45.85B Revenue Estimate (BMO) NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG): $0.51 EPS Estimate, $26.34B Revenue Estimate (BMO) Sempra Energy (SRE): $1.37 EPS Estimate, $6.29B Revenue Estimate (BMO) Lyft, Inc. (LYFT): $-0.16 EPS Estimate, $1.17B Revenue Estimate (AMC) Occidental Petroleum Corp. (OXY): $0.58 EPS Estimate, $6.70B Revenue Estimate (AMC) |
| Wednesday, May 8 | Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER): $0.21 EPS Estimate, $10.07B Revenue Estimate (BMO) Toyota Motor Corp. (TM): $2.91 EPS Estimate, $67.21B Revenue Estimate (BMO) HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO): $0.55 EPS Estimate, $7.30B Revenue Estimate (BMO) Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD): $0.72 EPS Estimate, $14.41 Revenue Estimate (BMO) Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB): $0.26 EPS Estimate, $2.07B Revenue Estimate (AMC) |
| Thursday, May 9 | Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. (WBD): $-0.24 EPS Estimate, $10.22B Revenue Estimate (BMO) |
| Friday, May 10 | Honda Motor Co., Ltd. (HMC): $0.44 EPS Estimate, $37.96B Revenue Estimate (BMO) |
* indicates that this company is in the Dow Jones Index
Economic Reports for the week of May 6 – May 10
With the quiet period having ended last week for Fed speakers, plenty of Fed governors and bank presidents make their opinions known this week, starting with Thomas Barking and John Williams on Monday. Neel Kashkari speaks Tuesday morning, and Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and Susan Barkin speak Wednesday morning.
Vice Chair Michael Barr and Chicago Fed Bank President Austan Goolsbee finish the week with their appearances on Friday afternoon. The most highly anticipated report comes Friday at noon with the WASDE report in the agricultural space. These reports for corn, soybeans, wheat and more provide supply, demand and price forecasts that can help traders understand trends during growing and harvesting seasons.
A series of treasury auctions (3-year notes, 10-year notes, and 30-year bonds) Tuesday through Thursday could move the treasury markets. Jobless Claims on Thursday (est. 210k) and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment (est. 77) are the reports to pay attention to for stock index futures this week.
| Date | Economic Reports |
|---|---|
| Monday, May 6 | 11:00 AM ET: Export Inspections 12:50 PM ET: Richmond Federal Reserve Bank Thomas Barkin Speaks 1:00 PM ET: New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams Speaks 4:00 PM ET: Crop Progress |
| Tuesday, May 7 | 11:30 AM ET: Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari Speaks 1:00 PM ET: 3-Year Note Auction 3:00 PM ET: Consumer Credit 4:30 PM ET: API Weekly Oil Stocks |
| Wednesday, May 8 | 7:00 AM ET: MBA Mortgage Applications 7:00 AM ET: Bank Reserve Settlement 10:00 AM ET: Wholesale Inventories (Preliminary) 10:30 AM ET: EIA Petroleum Status Report 11:00 AM ET: Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson Speaks 11:45 AM ET: Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins Speaks 1:00 PM ET: 10-Year Note Auction * 1:30 PM ET: Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook Speaks |
| Thursday, May 9 | 8:30 AM ET: Jobless Claims *** 8:30 AM ET: Export Sales 10:30 AM ET: EIA Natural Gas Report 1:00 PM ET: 30-Year Bond Auction * 4:30 PM ET: Fed Balance Sheet |
| Friday, May 10 | 10:00 AM ET: Consumer Sentiment * 12:00 PM ET: USDA Supply/Demand - Soybean, Cotton, Corn, Wheat *** 12:00 PM ET: Crop Production 12:45 PM ET: Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee Speaks 1:00 PM ET: Baker Hughes Rig Count 1:30 PM ET: Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michael Barr Speaks 2:00 PM ET: Treasury Statement |
*** Market Moving Indicators
* Merit Extra Attention
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